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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Tue 23-Aug-2016 7:10 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
CZ-7 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-28
201641628U41º14413187Reentered!
Lat=37   Lon=241
FLOCK 1E-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-08-9
199840737U52º15714588Reentered!
Lat=-44   Lon=86.6
FLOCK 1E-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-08-9
199840739U52º16413988Reentered!
Lat=-31.2   Lon=247
FLOCK 1E-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-08-9
199840738U52º15714788Reentered!
Lat=37.4   Lon=298.6
LIXING-1 (LX-1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-08-20
201641733U97º13212287Reentered!
Forecast
FLOCK 2B-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-08-22
199840955U52º18017288Reentered!
Lat=-20.4   Lon=138.5
FLOCK 1E-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-08-26
199840740U52º20819789Reentered!
Lat=49.2   Lon=305.2
AL-1 (AOLONG 1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-08-29
201641629U41º23716989Reentered!
Lat=-37   Lon=356
ARIANE 44L R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-23
199020874U3858135127Forecast
FLOCK 2B-14
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-27
199840980U52º27927290Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-30
201641387U97º31724590Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-8
200327706U39º89817795Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-8
201641730U21º3160992550Forecast
FLOCK 2B-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-11
199840956U52º28728290Forecast
FLOCK 2B-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-15
199840950U52º29228690Forecast
SL-6 R/B(2)
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-16
199724963U62º3935112128Forecast
FLOCK 2B-5
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-17
199840954U52º29429090Forecast
GOMX 3
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-29
199840949U52º30630491Forecast
FLOCK 2B-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-29
199840951U52º30029590Forecast
FLOCK 2B-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-11-16
199840979U52º31330991Forecast
FLOCK 2B-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-11-17
199840962U52º30830491Forecast
FLOCK 2B-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-11-21
199840952U52º30830591Forecast
ARIANE 5 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-11-22
200935497U12620117239Forecast
FLOCK 2B-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-12-1
199840953U52º31331191Forecast
FLOCK 2B-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-12-3
199840963U52º31330991Forecast
S-CUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-01-27
199840898U52º32932491Forecast
AVUM R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-01-27
201238086U69º42922291Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-19
201641559U97º44725792Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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