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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Wed 10-Feb-2016 7:09 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-01-15
201540983U27º8557094Reentered!
Lat=-26   Lon=283
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-01-30
201540893U26º8229594Reentered!
Lat=22   Lon=212
FLOCK 1E-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-02-8
199840736U52º14714287Reentered!
Lat=-42.9   Lon=91.7
FLOCK 1E-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-02-27
199840722U52º30830591Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-03-2
201540421U98º30424790Forecast
1998-067HR
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-03-4
199841326U52º40038792Forecast
CZ-4C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-03-7
201036835U98º29126690Forecast
AAUSAT 5
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-03-12
199840948U52º33632491Forecast
ATLAS 1 CENTAUR R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-03-14
199322788U27º72420094Forecast
1998-067HS
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-03-15
199841327U52º40139292Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-03-17
201541100U98º49920092Forecast
SERPENS
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-03-27
199840897U52º34333391Forecast
CZ-3C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-04-14
201540550U55º10305103207Forecast
FLOCK 1E-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-04-23
199840723U52º35134892Forecast
FLOCK 1E-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-04-24
199840725U52º34734291Forecast
SL-3 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-05-8
198011849U98º32532191Forecast
FLOCK 1E-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-05-23
199840724U52º35435292Forecast
FLOCK 2B-14
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-05-25
199840980U52º37436392Forecast
FLOCK 1E-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-06-1
199840726U52º35935692Forecast
FLOCK 1E-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-06-1
199840727U52º35334892Forecast
FLOCK 2B-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-06-2
199840955U52º37736692Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-06-5
201540881U20º29905130519Forecast
CZ-2C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-06-5
201239000U97º34333691Forecast
FLOCK 1E-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-06-12
199840738U52º35235192Forecast
FLOCK 1E-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-06-14
199840729U52º35535192Forecast
FLOCK 2B-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-06-15
199840956U52º37536492Forecast
FLOCK 1E-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-06-16
199840737U52º35835592Forecast
FLOCK 1E-14
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-06-18
199840741U52º35735392Forecast
FLOCK 1E-5
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-06-20
199840728U52º35735492Forecast
FLOCK 1E-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-06-27
199840739U52º35935692Forecast
FLOCK 1E-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-8
199840740U52º35635392Forecast
FLOCK 2B-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-12
199840962U52º37736692Forecast
FLOCK 2B-5
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-13
199840954U52º37736592Forecast
FLOCK 2B-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-13
199840952U52º37536992Forecast
FLOCK 2B-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-17
199840963U52º37736692Forecast
FLOCK 2B-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-22
199840950U52º37536792Forecast
FLOCK 2B-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-23
199840957U52º36635892Forecast
FLOCK 2B-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-30
199840979U52º37936792Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-30
200327706U39º2129188109Forecast
FLOCK 2B-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-08-1
199840953U52º37637092Forecast
S-CUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-08-1
199840898U52º38137092Forecast
FLOCK 2B-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-08-2
199840951U52º37536792Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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