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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Sun 26-Jan-2020 14:10 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-18
202045025U8644211690Reentered!
Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-21
201741912U2725411288Reentered!
Lat=18.3   Lon=288.1
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-23
200832477U4117616788Reentered!
Lat=2.5   Lon=259.2
STARLINK-75
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-6
201944286U5348748594Forecast
STARLINK-34
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-6
201944248U5352051895Forecast
STARLINK-22
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-7
201944236U5348448194Forecast
STARLINK-41
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-7
201944277U5348548394Forecast
STARLINK-1017
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-7
201944723U5335334792Forecast
STARLINK-1013
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-7
201944719U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1064
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-8
201944769U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1009
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-8
201944715U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-62
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-8
201944274U5352352195Forecast
STARLINK-1007
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-8
201944713U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-42
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-8
201944256U5347547394Forecast
STARLINK-1015
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-8
201944721U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1025
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-8
201944730U5335434692Forecast
STARLINK-1016
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-8
201944722U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1026
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-9
201944731U5335334792Forecast
STARLINK-58
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-9
201944270U5352352195Forecast
STARLINK-1023
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-9
201944728U5335434592Forecast
STARLINK-64
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-11
201944275U5348648494Forecast
STARLINK-33
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-12
201944247U5345144994Forecast
STARLINK-23
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-13
201944237U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1046
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-13
201944751U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-40
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-13
201944258U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-73
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-13
201944284U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-37
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-13
201944251U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-63
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-14
201944265U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-59
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-14
201944271U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1041
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-15
201944746U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-30
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-15
201944244U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1029
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-16
201944734U5338438292Forecast
STARLINK-68
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-16
201944279U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-36
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-16
201944250U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-72
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-16
201944263U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-46
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-16
201944246U5331722390Forecast
STARLINK-51
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-16
201944272U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-44
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-17
201944261U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-35
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-17
201944264U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-50
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-17
201944285U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-57
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-19
201944269U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-65
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-22
201944276U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1021
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-25
201944726U5335234792Forecast
STARLINK-55
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-25
201944268U5345144994Forecast
STARLINK-53
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-26
201944294U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1117
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-27
202044952U5335335192Forecast
STARLINK-38
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-27
201944280U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-27
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-28
201944241U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-81
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-28
201944292U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-28
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-29
201944242U5345144994Forecast
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-29
201944837U9752518092Forecast
STARLINK-48
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-29
201944289U5350950595Forecast
STARLINK-54
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-29
201944266U5353152995Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-29
202044977U5327326590Forecast
STARLINK-29
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-2
201944243U5344643993Forecast
STARLINK-76
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-7
201944287U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-25
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-8
201944239U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-49
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-9
201944262U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-69
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-10
201944267U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-32
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-10
201944254U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-71
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-12
201944252U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-70
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-13
201944281U5353052995Forecast
STARLINK-77
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-14
201944291U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-45
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-20
201944260U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-74
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-22
201944293U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-39
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-24
201944253U5353152995Forecast
BATSU-CS1 (IRAZU)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-24
199843468U5229929490Forecast
STARLINK-31
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-25
201944235U5353152995Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-27
198920362U3629627690Forecast
STARLINK-79
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-3
201944288U5353152995Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-8
201944372U4533726591Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-21
202044974U5327926990Forecast
STARLINK-67
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-23
201944278U5331929091Forecast
STARLINK-1019
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-24
201944724U5335434592Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-24
201944707U9840321991Forecast
CZ-2D R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-29
201641902U9832923890Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-1
202044976U5327526890Forecast
DIWATA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-2
199841463U5228228090Forecast
STARLINK-1124
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-9
202044953U5330430291Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-9
202044975U5328026890Forecast
RADIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-12
199843550U5232332191Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-15
201742800U9835324891Forecast
STARLINK-1090
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-19
202044968U5335034992Forecast
STARLINK-1091
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-19
202044940U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1088
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-20
202044966U5335334692Forecast
STARLINK-1126
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-23
202044951U5335034992Forecast
TECHEDSAT 8
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-30
199844032U5234534391Forecast
STARLINK-1008
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-7
201944714U5335234792Forecast
STARLINK-1022
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-8
201944727U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1067
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-14
201944771U5355054996Forecast
NSIGHT
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-16
199842726U5231631391Forecast
STARLINK-66
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-18
201944255U5345144994Forecast
ASTERIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-26
199843020U5231731491Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-1
201843230U2712357135235Forecast
STARLINK-1087
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-2
202044965U5335034992Forecast
STARLINK-26
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-3
201944240U5343843793Forecast
STARLINK-1040
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-4
201944745U5334233691Forecast
STARLINK-1115
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-7
202044973U5335134992Forecast
SL-12 R/B(AUX MOTOR)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-9
201238105U475301141144Forecast
STARLINK-1014
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-13
201944720U5337036292Forecast
STARLINK-1093
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-14
202044970U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1125
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-15
202044950U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1118
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-18
202044948U5335134992Forecast
SOYUZ-MS 13
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-20
201944437U5242341593Forecast
SOYUZ-MS 15
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-20
201944550U5242341593Forecast
CYGNUS NG-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-20
201944701U5242341593Forecast
PROGRESS-MS 13
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-20
201944833U5242341593Forecast
STARLINK-1070
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-21
202044956U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1076
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-22
202044959U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1038
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-25
201944743U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1079
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-25
202044937U5335034992Forecast
IRIDIUM 96 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-26
200227376U8644126392Forecast
STARLINK-1122
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-26
202044949U5335134992Forecast
DEBRISSAT-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-27
199843680U5234434291Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-4
200833415U2413997138259Forecast
STARLINK-1078
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-4
202044936U5335034992Forecast
1KUNS-PF
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-8
199843466U5233733591Forecast
STARLINK-1085
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-11
202044963U5335134992Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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