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The space junk CZ-3C R/B is forecast to reentry Thursday, 28 Nov 2019 at 14:53 UTC +/- 8 hours
CZ-3C R/B

Forecast for CZ-3C R/B Reentry


Update Mon 21-Oct-2019 18:09 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk CZ-3C R/B (36591U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Thursday, 28 Nov 2019 at 14:53 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-09-28
201944551U5215013587Reentered!
Lat=12   Lon=154.2
CZ-3C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-10-4
201641325U5528110588Reentered!
Lat=53.4   Lon=336.3
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-10-16
201944442U216388492Reentered!
Lat=-18.8   Lon=89.4
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-10-22
201944338U293105104118Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-10-29
201843709U554529105134Forecast
ATLAS 5 CENTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-14
201741938U234298130132Forecast
CZ-3C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-28
201036591U216022124152Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-28
201843242U2011517115223Forecast
ALTAIR PATHFINDER
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-11
199842711U5229328690Forecast
ELECTRON DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-17
201944639U881179310100Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-22
201741912U273484144123Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-30
200832477U4130329891Forecast
BATSU-CS1 (IRAZU)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-5
199843468U5234233991Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-15
201944372U4540928691Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-15
198920362U3633731191Forecast
RADIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-28
199843550U5235534992Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-4
201742800U9841126191Forecast
TECHEDSAT 8
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-16
199844032U5237436992Forecast
DIWATA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-18
199841463U5231130791Forecast
ASTERIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-25
199843020U5234334191Forecast
1KUNS-PF
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-2
199843466U5235735592Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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