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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Sun 21-Oct-2018 7:10 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
ICECUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-3
199842705U5215314487Reentered!
Lat=-9.3   Lon=258.5
LEMUR-2-AUSTINTACIOUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-4
199842068U5217416288Reentered!
Lat=-27.6   Lon=279.6
WASEDA-SAT3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-6
199841933U5216515488Reentered!
Lat=-20   Lon=330
IRIDIUM 20 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-22
199825577U8730713389Forecast
IRIDIUM 11 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-22
199825578U8631613689Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-25
201742985U2216114110289Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-14
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-26
199841762U5225123689Forecast
AOBA-VELOX 3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-2
199841935U5225624490Forecast
IRIDIUM 83 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-3
199825531U8668216693Forecast
ATLAS 2A CENTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-3
200227567U27129914899Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-4
201843586U9730519990Forecast
IRIDIUM 84 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-4
199825530U8649318091Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-6
201843244U9723422989Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-18
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-11
199841769U5229127990Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-15
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-15
199841764U5229027990Forecast
EXALTA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-22
199842734U5228827790Forecast
LEMUR-2-TRUTNAHD
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-23
199842069U5228127190Forecast
I-INSPIRE II
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-3
199842731U5229928990Forecast
LEMUR-2-REDFERN-GOES
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-12
199842059U5229829090Forecast
UNSW-ECO
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-12
199842723U5230429691Forecast
HOOPOE
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-28
199842718U5231330791Forecast
IRIDIUM 90 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-12
200227373U8650023992Forecast
ITF-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-16
199841932U5230930391Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-16
201843129U9730428490Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-25
201641883U283710145126Forecast
X-CUBESAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-6
199842707U5232732391Forecast
POLYITAN-2-SAU
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-11
199842732U5233032291Forecast
ARIANE 44L R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-13
199724715U710233134206Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-3
201843166U8340127591Forecast
SPACECUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-4
199842717U5233332991Forecast
QBEE50-LTU-OC
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-6
199842708U5233232991Forecast
HAVELSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-7
199842700U5233232791Forecast
CXBN-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-10
199842704U5233332991Forecast
CZ-2C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-13
201843532U9854723192Forecast
SNUSAT-1B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-19
199842733U5233933191Forecast
OSIRIS-3U
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-22
199843027U5235234792Forecast
H-1 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-23
198920230U282178176109Forecast
IRIDIUM 46 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-28
199724905U8656425793Forecast
LILACSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-3
199842725U5234133791Forecast
SNUSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-23
199842727U5234333691Forecast
SILU-1 (SILKROAD 1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-28
201742903U4334232591Forecast
SHARC
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-2
199842712U5235835592Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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