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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Fri 22-Nov-2019 7:10 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-10-28
201843709U5554510991Reentered!
Lat=-38.7   Lon=303.6
ANTARES R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-7
201944702U5216014588Reentered!
Lat=26.6   Lon=163.8
ATLAS 5 CENTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-19
201741938U2234510789Reentered!
Lat=7.9   Lon=150.8
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-20
201944778U9719411688Reentered!
Lat=-12.6   Lon=97.8
CZ-4B DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-22
201944708U9740036692Forecast
CZ-3C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-26
201036591U211650119103Forecast
ALTAIR PATHFINDER
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-9
199842711U5225725190Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-9
201843242U205045110141Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-7
201741912U272661144114Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-14
201944776U5328226990Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-14
201944774U5328727190Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-15
201944773U5328727390Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-20
200832477U4128828390Forecast
STARLINK AJ
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-20
201944745U5331230891Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-20
201944775U5328227290Forecast
STARLINK AC
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-4
201944739U5333433391Forecast
BATSU-CS1 (IRAZU)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-22
199843468U5233232791Forecast
CZ-2D R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-24
201641902U9837924891Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-19
198920362U3632830191Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-28
201742800U9839225691Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-28
201944372U4538628291Forecast
RADIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-16
199843550U5234734091Forecast
TECHEDSAT 8
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-16
199844032U5236636092Forecast
IRIDIUM 96 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-22
200227376U8648027092Forecast
ASTERIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-5
199843020U5233533391Forecast
NSIGHT
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-12
199842726U5233532991Forecast
DIWATA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-13
199841463U5230230091Forecast
STARLINK AZ
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-25
201944760U5333433391Forecast
1KUNS-PF
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-29
199843466U5235134892Forecast
STARLINK AU
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-31
201944755U5333633191Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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