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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Mon 11-Dec-2017 22:13 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
ANTARES R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-25
201743007U5215313787Reentered!
Lat=51.6   Lon=253.4
FLOCK 2E'-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-30
199841481U5215914988Reentered!
Lat=-51.3   Lon=125.1
2017-071E
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-12
201743041U5245345194Forecast
IRIDIUM 6 [+]
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-22
199724794U8656316792Forecast
GRACE-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-23
200227392U8925224289Forecast
FLOCK 2E-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-30
199841571U5228227590Forecast
OSNSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-23
199841939U5230329390Forecast
FLOCK 2E-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-2
199841484U5231130791Forecast
ISS DEB (ROSA)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-15
199842813U5234533491Forecast
MINOTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-16
200629053U7228427990Forecast
IRIDIUM 43 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-17
199725039U8645623591Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-18
201540881U203539140124Forecast
FLOCK 2E-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-28
199841563U5232531791Forecast
COLUMBIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-17
199842702U5234734091Forecast
GRACE-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-24
200227391U8930129490Forecast
STARS-C
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-25
199841895U5233232691Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-27
201741912U2721625127376Forecast
FLOCK 2E-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-30
199841487U5233633491Forecast
AGGIESAT 4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-31
199841313U5230429991Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-10
199841578U5231230591Forecast
IRIDIUM 19 [+]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-12
199724965U8669022494Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-18
201742748U2226709125462Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-23
199841575U5231430791Forecast
ATLANTIS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-24
199842737U5235734892Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-28
201238249U9731430591Forecast
TIANGONG 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-10
201137820U4330327690Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-13
200428476U391528190102Forecast
EAGLE 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-25
201339436U9841640793Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-29
199841576U5232031391Forecast
FLOCK 2E-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-7
199841573U5232431991Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-8
199841569U5232532291Forecast
SGSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-9
199842703U5236335792Forecast
2017-071N
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-11
201743049U5245644894Forecast
TECHEDSAT 6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-13
199843026U5239839392Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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