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The space junk SL-18 R/B is forecast to reentry Sunday, 02 Jul 2017 at 23:03 UTC +/- 8 hours
SL-18 R/B

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Mon 24-Apr-2017 18:13 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk SL-18 R/B (29080U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Sunday, 02 Jul 2017 at 23:03 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
KT-2A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-8
201742062U9716013287Reentered!
Forecast
STMSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-21
199841476U5220118688Reentered!
Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-23
201742683U5216915588Reentered!
Forecast
2017-021D
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-25
201742687U4339518290Forecast
2017-021E
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-25
201742688U4340418890Forecast
2017-021C
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-26
201742686U4242518891Forecast
SL-14 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-26
200126874U8219218688Forecast
2017-021B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-1
201742685U4335120190Forecast
MINXSS
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-2
199841474U5227826790Forecast
EGG
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-5
199841934U5233832991Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-13
201440120U9828525090Forecast
BEVO 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-22
199841314U5230029190Forecast
LEMUR-2-DRMUZZ
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-28
201641595U5231230991Forecast
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-2
201741916U9841623891Forecast
TECHEDSAT 5
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-3
199842066U5238137892Forecast
FLOCK 2E-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-16
199841566U5232631891Forecast
TUPOD
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-19
199841936U5237637292Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-23
201238253U553125146119Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-1
201641726U287257127168Forecast
SL-18 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-2
200629080U9831030691Forecast
NODES 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-5
199841477U5234433991Forecast
NODES 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-6
199841478U5234434091Forecast
TANCREDO-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-13
199841931U5238437692Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-13
199842434U5240039392Forecast
FIREFLY
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-24
201339404U4035734992Forecast
CZ-3A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-16
200731116U5513326126249Forecast
OSNSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-20
199841939U5239138292Forecast
MINOTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-8
200629053U7235334291Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-15
199841570U5236135792Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-23
199841575U5236536192Forecast
AGGIESAT 4
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-24
199841313U5235735292Forecast
EAGLE 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-25
201339436U9846945594Forecast
STARS-C
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-26
199841895U5239438792Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-2
199841569U5236636492Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-4
201238249U9736734892Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-5
199841479U5236836792Forecast
LEMUR-2-TRUTNA
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-7
199842067U5240239192Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-7
199841578U5236736192Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-7
199841576U5236836392Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-10
199841482U5236336192Forecast
FLOCK 2E-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-14
199841571U5236636292Forecast
FLOCK 2E-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-15
199841565U5236836492Forecast
FLOCK 2E-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-17
199841572U5237036592Forecast
FLOCK 2E-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-18
199841573U5236836492Forecast
TIANGONG 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-18
201137820U4335332991Forecast
FLOCK 2E-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-20
199841574U5236736392Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-26
199841577U5236936492Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-28
199841480U5236836792Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-28
199841481U5236636592Forecast
FLOCK 2E-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-30
199841484U5236736592Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-4
201641883U2819244131338Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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