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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Thu 21-Mar-2019 22:10 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
ARIANE 44L R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-25
199724715U72089788Reentered!
Lat=1   Lon=246.8
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-3
201843166U8315014187Reentered!
Lat=-25.3   Lon=101.6
SNUSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-14
199842733U5214413787Reentered!
Lat=51.6   Lon=355.1
IRIDIUM 14 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-15
199925777U8720612088Reentered!
Lat=76.8   Lon=230
IRIDIUM 60 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-17
199825276U8719612388Reentered!
Lat=86.2   Lon=241.9
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-17
201944070U5215415088Reentered!
Lat=16.6   Lon=240.2
IRIDIUM 95 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-25
200227375U8745615291Forecast
LILACSAT-1 (LO-90)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-29
199842725U5224223489Forecast
IRIDIUM 64 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-30
199825287U8670116093Forecast
SNUSAT-1B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-31
199842727U5225324489Forecast
IRIDIUM 55 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-4
199825272U8766515793Forecast
H-1 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-6
198920230U2878716294Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-12
201843684U2891619996Forecast
SILU-1 (SILKROAD 1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-15
201742903U4327425590Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-21
201641753U219685117199Forecast
BEEAGLESAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-3
199842736U5229328790Forecast
TOKI
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-8
199842820U5229929290Forecast
SHARC
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-10
199842712U5230830191Forecast
CSUNSAT1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-11
199842715U5229929390Forecast
PHOENIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-13
199842706U5230329891Forecast
BRAC ONNESHA
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-13
199842823U5230229590Forecast
MAZAALAI (NUMSAT-1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-18
199842822U5230429891Forecast
NIGERIAEDUSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-20
199842824U5230629991Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-22
201743033U6743321191Forecast
CZ-2C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-22
201843532U9835821490Forecast
ZA-AEROSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-06-2
199842713U5231230691Forecast
IRIDIUM 46 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-06-11
199724905U8640724491Forecast
NJUST-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-07-5
199842722U5232531991Forecast
BANXING-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-07-21
201641834U4330128290Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-08-14
200832712U401643180103Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-08-19
201843604U5514334113263Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-09-24
201843588U2714080137260Forecast
ATLAS 5 CENTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-10-4
201741938U2314758143270Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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