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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Fri 1-Jul-2016 7:08 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
CZ-2C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-06-27
201239000U97º12210487Reentered!
Lat=33   Lon=209
2016-042D
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-3
201641627U41º27818589Forecast
2016-042H
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-3
201641631U40º40118690Forecast
2016-042G
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-3
201641630U41º40518690Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-4
201541035U18º1636112102Forecast
2016-042K
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-4
201641633U41º44118291Forecast
2016-042J
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-4
201641632U41º43618991Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-5
201641239U26º3815106126Forecast
FLOCK 1E-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-27
199840726U52º27225690Forecast
FLOCK 1E-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-30
199840729U52º26725790Forecast
2016-042F
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-08-4
201641629U41º37320090Forecast
FLOCK 1E-14
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-08-16
199840741U52º28227490Forecast
FLOCK 1E-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-08-30
199840739U52º28828290Forecast
FLOCK 1E-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-8
199840737U52º29428890Forecast
FLOCK 1E-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-14
199840738U52º28928590Forecast
ARIANE 44L R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-14
199020874U7027137165Forecast
2016-042M
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-22
201641637U41º29327990Forecast
2016-042L
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-22
201641636U41º29028090Forecast
2016-042C
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-2
201641626U41º37420090Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-9
200327706U39º127718299Forecast
FLOCK 1E-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-16
199840740U52º30029790Forecast
FLOCK 2B-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-22
199840955U52º30830191Forecast
FLOCK 2B-14
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-31
199840980U52º31731091Forecast
SL-6 R/B(2)
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-11-10
199724963U62º5840113150Forecast
FLOCK 2B-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-11-11
199840956U52º32131391Forecast
FLOCK 2B-5
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-11-12
199840954U52º32531791Forecast
2016-042B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-11-19
201641625U41º37628691Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-11-22
201641387U97º36526391Forecast
FLOCK 2B-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-11-25
199840950U52º32231691Forecast
FLOCK 2B-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-12-5
199840951U52º32632191Forecast
AVUM R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-12-9
201238086U69º47823092Forecast
FLOCK 2B-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-01-3
199840979U52º33532791Forecast
FLOCK 2B-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-01-9
199840952U52º33032591Forecast
FLOCK 2B-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-01-10
199840963U52º33432791Forecast
FLOCK 2B-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-01-13
199840953U52º33232991Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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