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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Sat 10-Dec-2016 22:12 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-11-21
201641865U52º15514487Reentered!
Lat=-2   Lon=36
CADRE
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-12-30
199841475U52º30529591Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-01-2
201641559U97º30622690Forecast
PHONESAT 2.4
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-01-16
201339381U40º31330091Forecast
LEMUR-2-NATE
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-1
201641598U52º33633291Forecast
SL-6 R/B(2)
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-5
198819448U63º64118193Forecast
LEMUR-2-CUBECHEESE
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-8
201641597U52º34033791Forecast
LEMUR-2-BRIDGEMAN
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-10
201641596U52º33633391Forecast
LEMUR-2-JEFF
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-17
199841490U52º34934291Forecast
LEMUR-2-THERESACONDOR
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-25
199841485U52º35334692Forecast
SPINSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-25
199840314U52º29128990Forecast
LEMUR-2-KANE
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-28
199841489U52º35334892Forecast
LEMUR-2-NICK-ALLAIN
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-2
199841488U52º35534992Forecast
MINXSS
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-9
199841474U52º36035492Forecast
STMSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-12
199841476U52º35835292Forecast
FLOCK 2E-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-21
199841566U52º37036292Forecast
SL-14 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-28
200126874U82º29529090Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-5
201440120U98º36929191Forecast
LEMUR-2-DRMUZZ
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-04-17
201641595U52º36135992Forecast
BEVO 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-14
199841314U52º35234692Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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