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The space junk PROGRESS 59 M-27M is forecast to reentry Friday, 08 May 2015 at 21:30 UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Tue 5-May-2015 14:11 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk PROGRESS 59 M-27M (40619U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast, the object's reentry will occur in Friday, 08 May 2015 at 21:30 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
SL-3 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-04-18
198012072U81º14813387Reentered!
Lat=68   Lon=36
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-04-22
201540589U52º16814488Reentered!
Lat=26   Lon=19
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-04-29
201540620U52º17016188Reentered!
Lat=-52   Lon=272
SL-4 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-05-2
201540633U52º13711487Reentered!
Forecast
SL-4 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-05-2
201540640U52º18415388Reentered!
Forecast
SL-4 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-05-3
201540635U52º17515488Reentered!
Forecast
SL-4 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-05-6
201540637U52º21916788Forecast
PROGRESS 59 M-27M
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-05-8
201540619U52º21317188Forecast
ARIANE 44LP R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-05-12
200126986U2533122112Forecast
AESP 14
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-05-12
199840389U52º28226590Forecast
ARIANE 42P+ R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-05-17
199222254U1681150103Forecast
LAMBDASAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-05-20
199840458U52º32329991Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-06-2
200934809U41º28828590Forecast
SL-24 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-06-6
200731790U64º33730591Forecast
CZ-2D R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-06-22
201440138U98º44522391Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-07-5
201440359U67º58321793Forecast
SL-8 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-07-11
198112389U83º38727691Forecast
FLOCK 1B-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-07-24
199840430U52º37135592Forecast
SL-8 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-07-24
198314484U83º40927791Forecast
MICROMAS
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-07-29
199840457U52º37135792Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-08-28
200934662U40º2398175111Forecast
FLOCK 1B-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-09-24
199840454U52º38136892Forecast
FLOCK 1B-27
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-10-1
199840422U52º37736892Forecast
FLOCK 1B-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-10-15
199840459U52º37936992Forecast
GEARRS-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-10-15
199840456U52º38537392Forecast
FLOCK 1B-22
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-10-16
199840428U52º38036992Forecast
FLOCK 1B-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-10-17
199840460U52º38437492Forecast
FLOCK 1B-21
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-10-22
199840427U52º37636792Forecast
FLOCK 1B-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-11-2
199840429U52º38137192Forecast
VERMONT LUNAR
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-11-15
201339407U41º41739693Forecast
PROMETHEUS 1-5
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-11-16
201339393U41º41939793Forecast
FLOCK 1B-28
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-11-16
199840423U52º37837092Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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