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The space junk CZ-2F DEB is forecast to reentry Friday, 30 Sep 2016 at 11:19 UTC +/- 8 hours
CZ-2F DEB

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Fri 30-Sep-2016 22:08 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk CZ-2F DEB (41767U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Friday, 30 Sep 2016 at 11:19 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
CZ-2F DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-19
201641778U43º28116489Reentered!
Forecast
CZ-2F DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-20
201641779U43º33617990Reentered!
Forecast
ARIANE 44L R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-20
199020874U64112192Reentered!
Lat=7   Lon=56
FLOCK 2B-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-21
199840956U52º16713487Reentered!
Lat=49.8   Lon=183.4
FLOCK 2B-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-22
199840950U52º15913587Reentered!
Lat=-51   Lon=165.8
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-24
201641387U97º13312387Reentered!
Lat=-24.4   Lon=170.6
FLOCK 2B-5
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-25
199840954U52º17716488Reentered!
Lat=-11.7   Lon=307.6
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-25
200327706U39º17512788Reentered!
Lat=30.4   Lon=270.9
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-26
201641730U21º7889293Reentered!
Lat=-5.8   Lon=117.5
CZ-2F R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-29
201641766U43º19715588Reentered!
Lat=26.1   Lon=203.3
CZ-2F DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-30
201641767U43º21116888Forecast
SL-6 R/B(2)
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-30
199724963U62º4269190Forecast
FLOCK 2B-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-3
199840951U52º22822189Forecast
FLOCK 2B-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-12
199840979U52º27026690Forecast
FLOCK 2B-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-12
199840962U52º26626390Forecast
FLOCK 2B-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-15
199840952U52º26726390Forecast
FLOCK 2B-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-20
199840953U52º28027790Forecast
FLOCK 2B-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-21
199840963U52º27827590Forecast
SL-6 R/B(2)
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-23
200428164U63º2845792492Forecast
GOMX 3
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-27
199840949U52º27226890Forecast
ARIANE 5 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-28
200935497U7577115171Forecast
AVUM R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-11-2
201238086U69º36221390Forecast
S-CUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-11-17
199840898U52º30630591Forecast
CADRE
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-12-3
199841475U52º36636292Forecast
PHONESAT 2.4
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-12-15
201339381U40º35334392Forecast
LEMUR 2 BRIDGEMAN
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-12-29
201641596U52º37336492Forecast
LEMUR-2-JEFF
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-01-3
199841490U52º37937492Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-01-8
201641559U97º41625491Forecast
LEMUR 2 CUBECHEESE
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-01-15
201641597U52º37436692Forecast
LEMUR 2 NATE
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-01-17
201641598U52º37336592Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-01-17
199841577U52º38938692Forecast
SPINSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-01-18
199840314U52º31931291Forecast
SL-6 R/B(2)
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-01-21
198819448U63º86019095Forecast
LEMUR-2-KANE
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-01-27
199841489U52º37937492Forecast
STMSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-5
199841476U52º38037692Forecast
LEMUR-2-THERESACONDOR
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-5
199841485U52º38037592Forecast
LEMUR-2-NICK-ALLAIN
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-7
199841488U52º38137692Forecast
MINXSS
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-20
199841474U52º38037792Forecast
LEMUR 2 DRMUZZ
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-02-23
201641595U52º38137292Forecast
SL-14 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-5
200126874U82º31630691Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-6
201440120U98º39830092Forecast
BEVO 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-03-20
199841314U52º36736692Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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