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O lixo espacial FLOCK 2E-10 está previsto para reentrar Quarta-feira, 28 Fev 2018 as 03:02 UTC +/- 8 hours
FLOCK 2E-10

Previsão de Reentrada


Atualizado Terça-feira, 20 Fev 2018 7:11 UTC

O mapa acima mostra a possível localização da reentrada do lixo espacial FLOCK 2E-10 (41572U), previsto por modelagem de evolução orbital até que o satélite ou fragmento atinja a altura nominal de ruptura.

De acordo com a previsão, a reentrada do objeto ocorrerá Quarta-feira, 28 Fev 2018 as 03:02 UTC, acima das coordenadas mostradas no mapa.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
SL-23 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-28
201743090U51º15512387Reentered!
Lat=-9.2   Lon=285.7
MINOTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-3
200629053U72º13612887Reentered!
Lat=68.9   Lon=147.4
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-8
201742748U21º147997101Reentered!
Lat=21.1   Lon=341.9
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-16
201843212U52º15014087Reentered!
Lat=48.4   Lon=262
FLOCK 2E'-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-17
199841576U52º18618088Reentered!
Lat=1   Lon=9.5
FLOCK 2E-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-28
199841572U52º26825690Forecast
STARS-C
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-2
199841895U52º26625890Forecast
FLOCK 2E-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-2
199841574U52º28026890Forecast
FLOCK 2E-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-3
199841573U52º27726690Forecast
FLOCK 2E-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-3
199841487U52º28127090Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-3
199841578U52º25724490Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-4
201540881U20º131213299Forecast
COLUMBIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-4
199842702U52º28928190Forecast
GRACE-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-10
200227391U89º25324389Forecast
IRIDIUM 23 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-11
199724906U86º70217993Forecast
AGGIESAT 4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-12
199841313U52º25825090Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-12
199841577U52º29528690Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-18
199841575U52º27526690Forecast
HUMANITY STAR
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-20
201843168U83º45328092Forecast
ATLANTIS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-22
199842737U52º31731391Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-31
201238249U97º28027690Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-1
199841568U52º32031491Forecast
FLOCK 2E-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-4
199841486U52º31330891Forecast
TIANGONG 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-5
201137820U43º27124990Forecast
LEMUR-2-TRUTNA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-8
199842067U52º31931691Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-17
199841480U52º31130991Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-18
199841479U52º30330091Forecast
IRIDIUM 19 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-24
199724965U86º54821992Forecast
SGSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-24
199842703U52º33733591Forecast
EAGLE 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-26
201339436U98º39338492Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-1
199841569U52º30329891Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-5
199841761U52º34834391Forecast
TECHEDSAT 6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-8
199843026U52º37537192Forecast
FLOCK 2E-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-9
199841565U52º30830391Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-19
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-9
199841777U52º34434391Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-16
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-18
199841763U52º34534091Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-22
200428476U39º118518798Forecast
IRIDIUM 37 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-28
199724968U86º66221993Forecast
SS-520-5 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-30
201843202U31º1881186106Forecast
TRICOM-1R (TASUKI)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-18
201843201U31º1903185106Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-17
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-20
199841776U52º35334892Forecast
CHALLENGER
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-22
199842721U52º36035392Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-30
201641395U98º37728691Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-12
201742796U95º32930091Forecast
FLOCK 2E-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-14
199841483U52º32732691Forecast
DUTHSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-19
199842724U52º36235692Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-08-1
201742762U43º43725491Forecast
LINK
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-08-3
199842714U52º36436292Forecast
WASEDA-SAT3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-08-15
199841933U52º35435092Forecast
LEMUR-2-TRUTNAHD
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-08-29
199842069U52º36335692Forecast
AOBA-VELOX 3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-08-29
199841935U52º35835392Forecast
IRIDIUM 40 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-09-1
199725041U86º52526993Forecast
I-INSPIRE II
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-09-3
199842731U52º37236592Forecast
LEMUR-2-AUSTINTACIOUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-09-7
199842068U52º35835292Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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