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O lixo espacial TECHEDSAT 5 está previsto para reentrar Sábado, 29 Jul 2017 as 04:54 UTC +/- 8 hours
TECHEDSAT 5

Previsão de Reentrada


Atualizado Quarta-feira, 26 Jul 2017 22:08 UTC

O mapa acima mostra a possível localização da reentrada do lixo espacial TECHEDSAT 5 (42066U), previsto por modelagem de evolução orbital até que o satélite ou fragmento atinja a altura nominal de ruptura.

De acordo com a previsão, a reentrada do objeto ocorrerá Sábado, 29 Jul 2017 as 04:54 UTC, acima das coordenadas mostradas no mapa.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-17
201741916U97º13613087Reentered!
Forecast
CZ-3A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-18
200731116U55º6569992Reentered!
Lat=-11.3   Lon=229.1
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-21
201641726U28º48310890Reentered!
Lat=17.1   Lon=171
FLOCK 2E-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-25
199841566U52º18317188Reentered!
Lat=-45   Lon=190.1
TECHEDSAT 5
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-29
199842066U52º25224890Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-16
201238253U55º1572139102Forecast
SL-18 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-9
200629080U98º27126490Forecast
INFLATESAIL
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-9
201742770U97º48946794Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-11
201641472U24º15456118280Forecast
TUPOD
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-17
199841936U52º33632691Forecast
NODES 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-4
199841477U52º30830791Forecast
NODES 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-22
199841478U52º31130991Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-5
199842434U52º37736792Forecast
TANCREDO-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-5
199841931U52º36035092Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-16
199842697U52º39137992Forecast
FIREFLY
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-6
201339404U40º33832691Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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