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O lixo espacial CZ-4B R/B está previsto para reentrar Domingo, 28 Mai 2017 as 01:51 UTC +/- 8 hours
CZ-4B R/B

Previsão de Reentrada


Atualizado Domingo, 28 Mai 2017 22:10 UTC

O mapa acima mostra a possível localização da reentrada do lixo espacial CZ-4B R/B (40120U), previsto por modelagem de evolução orbital até que o satélite ou fragmento atinja a altura nominal de ruptura.

De acordo com a previsão, a reentrada do objeto ocorrerá Domingo, 28 Mai 2017 as 01:51 UTC, acima das coordenadas mostradas no mapa.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
CZ-7 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-18
201742685U43º16414788Reentered!
Lat=-24.6   Lon=327
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-05-28
201440120U98º15313687Forecast
BEVO 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-16
199841314U52º26025590Forecast
LEMUR-2-DRMUZZ
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-06-30
201641595U52º28528290Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-7
201641726U28º5336128144Forecast
TECHEDSAT 5
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-07-23
199842066U52º36135792Forecast
FLOCK 2E-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-6
199841566U52º30829991Forecast
CZ-3A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-8
200731116U55º10232118206Forecast
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-08-20
201741916U98º37223291Forecast
TUPOD
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-11
199841936U52º36236092Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-11
201238253U55º2439145111Forecast
SL-18 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-26
200629080U98º29929490Forecast
NODES 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-7
199841477U52º33432891Forecast
NODES 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-19
199841478U52º33532991Forecast
TANCREDO-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-7
199841931U52º37436992Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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