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O lixo espacial FLOCK 2E-2 está previsto para reentrar Quarta-feira, 24 Jan 2018 as 10:29 UTC +/- 8 hours
FLOCK 2E-2

Previsão de Reentrada


Atualizado Sexta-feira, 19 Jan 2018 22:10 UTC

O mapa acima mostra a possível localização da reentrada do lixo espacial FLOCK 2E-2 (41484U), previsto por modelagem de evolução orbital até que o satélite ou fragmento atinja a altura nominal de ruptura.

De acordo com a previsão, a reentrada do objeto ocorrerá Quarta-feira, 24 Jan 2018 as 10:29 UTC, acima das coordenadas mostradas no mapa.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
IRIDIUM 6 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-23
199724794U86º17012087Reentered!
Lat=83.7   Lon=157.3
GRACE-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-24
200227392U89º13413187Reentered!
Lat=63.9   Lon=199.1
FLOCK 2E-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-25
199841571U52º18717488Reentered!
Lat=-19.5   Lon=321.9
IRIDIUM 34 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-8
199724969U86º17512688Reentered!
Lat=-1.3   Lon=70
OSNSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-11
199841939U52º15715588Reentered!
Lat=-11   Lon=133.6
SL-23 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-16
201743093U51º34814189Reentered!
Forecast
SL-23 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-17
201743094U51º34714789Reentered!
Forecast
FLOCK 2E-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-24
199841484U52º24623689Forecast
SL-23 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-28
201743090U51º36915790Forecast
SL-23 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-30
201743091U51º55817292Forecast
SL-23 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-30
201743092U51º57917192Forecast
MINOTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-5
200629053U72º24623889Forecast
ISS DEB (ROSA)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-6
199842813U52º29728790Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-7
201742748U21º12328113235Forecast
IRIDIUM 43 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-18
199725039U86º34422590Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-20
201540881U20º2487136112Forecast
FLOCK 2E-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-21
199841563U52º29128590Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-6
199841578U52º28928590Forecast
FLOCK 2E-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-8
199841572U52º31130891Forecast
STARS-C
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-13
199841895U52º30930191Forecast
FLOCK 2E-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-15
199841487U52º31530891Forecast
COLUMBIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-15
199842702U52º32531691Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-19
199841575U52º29429290Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-22
199841576U52º29729690Forecast
AGGIESAT 4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-23
199841313U52º28328090Forecast
GRACE-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-24
200227391U89º28227290Forecast
ATLANTIS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-11
199842737U52º34033091Forecast
IRIDIUM 19 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-19
199724965U86º60722193Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-30
201238249U97º29929090Forecast
TIANGONG 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-2
201137820U43º28726390Forecast
LEMUR-2-TRUTNA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-23
199842067U52º33332691Forecast
FLOCK 2E-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-27
199841573U52º31030991Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-27
199841479U52º31531291Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-31
199841569U52º31331191Forecast
SGSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-1
199842703U52º35034591Forecast
TECHEDSAT 6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-3
199843026U52º38638192Forecast
FLOCK 2E-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-12
199841574U52º31331291Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-18
200428476U39º1341187100Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-29
201741912U27º16589131297Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-3
199841577U52º31631691Forecast
ISS (ZARYA)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-6
199825544U52º40740293Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-8
199841480U52º32031891Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-16
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-13
199841763U52º35634892Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-17
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-18
199841776U52º36235492Forecast
EAGLE 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-20
201339436U98º40339693Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-21
199841761U52º35935092Forecast
FLOCK 2E-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-27
199841565U52º31631691Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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