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O lixo espacial IRIDIUM 8 [+] está previsto para reentrar Quinta-feira, 23 Nov 2017 as 20:14 UTC +/- 8 hours
IRIDIUM 8 [+]

Previsão de Reentrada


Atualizado Domingo, 12 Nov 2017 7:08 UTC

O mapa acima mostra a possível localização da reentrada do lixo espacial IRIDIUM 8 [+] (24792U), previsto por modelagem de evolução orbital até que o satélite ou fragmento atinja a altura nominal de ruptura.

De acordo com a previsão, a reentrada do objeto ocorrerá Quinta-feira, 23 Nov 2017 as 20:14 UTC, acima das coordenadas mostradas no mapa.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-16
201742972U52º12211987Reentered!
Lat=26.3   Lon=51.6
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-25
199842697U52º18817788Reentered!
Forecast
FIREFLY
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-1
201339404U40º15315188Reentered!
Lat=-39.7   Lon=344.9
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-3
201742802U24º145380100Reentered!
Lat=-24.2   Lon=308.3
FLOCK 2E'-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-8
199841482U52º18017788Reentered!
Lat=-21.8   Lon=223.7
CZ-4B DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-11
200833411U97º17916988Reentered!
Lat=-65.3   Lon=259.6
IRIDIUM 8 [+]
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-23
199724792U86º52017892Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-6
199841481U52º30229090Forecast
FLOCK 2E-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-20
199841571U52º32532091Forecast
OSNSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-8
199841939U52º33032191Forecast
FLOCK 2E-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-19
199841484U52º33432991Forecast
MINOTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-23
200629053U72º30329490Forecast
GRACE-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-24
200227392U89º30128890Forecast
FLOCK 2E-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-28
199841563U52º34333691Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-31
201540881U20º4297140132Forecast
ISS DEB (ROSA)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-1
199842813U52º36435692Forecast
IRIDIUM 43 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-2
199725039U86º50424392Forecast
COLUMBIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-20
199842702U52º36035792Forecast
STARS-C
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-20
199841895U52º34634291Forecast
AGGIESAT 4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-27
199841313U52º31731091Forecast
TIANGONG 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-2
201137820U43º31228791Forecast
ATLANTIS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-8
199842737U52º36736192Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-9
199841578U52º32631791Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-11
199841575U52º32831891Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-17
201238249U97º32631391Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-23
199841576U52º33132391Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-6
200428476U39º1673193104Forecast
EAGLE 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-10
201339436U98º42741793Forecast
LEMUR-2-TRUTNA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-14
199842067U52º35434992Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-19
199841479U52º33633291Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-22
199841569U52º33433091Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-26
199841480U52º33933491Forecast
FLOCK 2E-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-26
199841565U52º33833091Forecast
FLOCK 2E-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-3
199841486U52º34233891Forecast
FLOCK 2E-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-4
199841573U52º33532791Forecast
FLOCK 2E-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-5
199841574U52º33632791Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-6
199841761U52º37736892Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-7
199841577U52º33833191Forecast
SGSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-11
199842703U52º37136792Forecast
FLOCK 2E-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-18
199841572U52º34033391Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-23
199841568U52º34934291Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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