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O lixo espacial I-INSPIRE II está previsto para reentrar Quinta-feira, 22 Nov 2018 as 19:47 UTC +/- 8 hours
I-INSPIRE II

Previsão de Reentrada I-INSPIRE II


Atualizado Segunda-feira, 12 Nov 2018 14:09 UTC

O mapa acima mostra a possível localização da reentrada do lixo espacial I-INSPIRE II (42731U), previsto por modelagem de evolução orbital até que o satélite ou fragmento atinja a altura nominal de ruptura.

De acordo com a previsão, a reentrada do objeto ocorrerá Quinta-feira, 22 Nov 2018 as 19:47 UTC, acima das coordenadas mostradas no mapa.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
FLOCK 2E'-14
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-25
199841762U52º20519388Reentered!
Lat=17   Lon=170.9
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-28
201742985U22º250771111Reentered!
Lat=-20.6   Lon=65
AOBA-VELOX 3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-1
199841935U52º17216988Reentered!
Lat=-46.7   Lon=259.3
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-4
201843244U97º14013087Reentered!
Lat=23.1   Lon=187.4
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-4
201843586U97º13611987Reentered!
Lat=-62.7   Lon=114.4
ATLAS 2A CENTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-5
200227567U27º30212689Reentered!
Lat=-24.2   Lon=143
IRIDIUM 62 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-7
199825285U86º19211588Reentered!
Lat=-27.7   Lon=229
FLOCK 2E'-18
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-7
199841769U52º15915088Reentered!
Lat=1.8   Lon=188.1
FLOCK 2E'-15
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-10
199841764U52º17516988Reentered!
Lat=43.3   Lon=74.8
LEMUR-2-TRUTNAHD
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-13
199842069U52º20319889Reentered!
Lat=11.6   Lon=124.7
EXALTA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-14
199842734U52º21721089Reentered!
Lat=-4.1   Lon=294.5
I-INSPIRE II
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-22
199842731U52º26725890Forecast
UNSW-ECO
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-1
199842723U52º28027090Forecast
IRVINE-01
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-3
201843693U85º51549395Forecast
LEMUR-2-REDFERN-GOES
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-4
199842059U52º27526690Forecast
HOOPOE
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-16
199842718U52º29829090Forecast
2018-088A
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-27
201843690U85º50420992Forecast
ITF-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-28
199841932U52º29728990Forecast
IRIDIUM 90 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-1
200227373U86º45223291Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-3
201641883U28º3025144118Forecast
2018-083F
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-5
201843667U98º47821291Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-11
201843129U97º29027590Forecast
X-CUBESAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-24
199842707U52º31931291Forecast
POLYITAN-2-SAU
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-27
199842732U52º32131291Forecast
CXBN-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-9
199842704U52º32732191Forecast
ARIANE 44L R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-10
199724715U8812134187Forecast
HAVELSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-12
199842700U52º32631991Forecast
QBEE50-LTU-OC
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-14
199842708U52º32632191Forecast
SPACECUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-15
199842717U52º32732091Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-18
201843166U83º38927091Forecast
OSIRIS-3U
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-21
199843027U52º34633991Forecast
DEBRISSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-22
199843621U52º38937792Forecast
SNUSAT-1B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-3
199842733U52º33332491Forecast
H-1 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-12
198920230U28º1998175107Forecast
SNUSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-13
199842727U52º33832991Forecast
LILACSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-15
199842725U52º33732991Forecast
SILU-1 (SILKROAD 1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-24
201742903U43º33931791Forecast
BEEAGLESAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-7
199842736U52º34333491Forecast
SHARC
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-10
199842712U52º35434992Forecast
CZ-2C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-11
201843532U98º52322892Forecast
TOKI
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-16
199842820U52º34533991Forecast
MAZAALAI (NUMSAT-1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-16
199842822U52º34634091Forecast
CSUNSAT 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-17
199842715U52º34433791Forecast
BRAC ONNESHA
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-20
199842823U52º34733891Forecast
IRIDIUM 46 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-21
199724905U86º54325593Forecast
NIGERIAEDUSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-25
199842824U52º34834091Forecast
PHOENIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-10
199842706U52º34233891Forecast
ZA-AEROSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-12
199842713U52º34734291Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-21
201743033U67º60222693Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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