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O lixo espacial IRIDIUM 30 [-] está previsto para reentrar Quinta-feira, 28 Set 2017 as 14:14 UTC +/- 8 hours
IRIDIUM 30 [-]

Previsão de Reentrada


Atualizado Segunda-feira, 25 Set 2017 22:11 UTC

O mapa acima mostra a possível localização da reentrada do lixo espacial IRIDIUM 30 [-] (24949U), previsto por modelagem de evolução orbital até que o satélite ou fragmento atinja a altura nominal de ruptura.

De acordo com a previsão, a reentrada do objeto ocorrerá Quinta-feira, 28 Set 2017 as 14:14 UTC, acima das coordenadas mostradas no mapa.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
SL-18 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-3
200629080U98º14112987Reentered!
Lat=27.3   Lon=341.4
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-16
201641472U24º1416100100Reentered!
Lat=4.7   Lon=209.8
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-16
201742938U52º15014087Reentered!
Lat=-24.9   Lon=129.8
DRAGON CRS-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-17
201742904U52º39839292Reentered!
Forecast
NODES 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-19
199841477U52º15314988Reentered!
Lat=30.7   Lon=70.2
IRIDIUM 77 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-22
199825471U86º19011888Reentered!
Lat=-81.6   Lon=288
NODES 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-23
199841478U52º14914287Reentered!
Lat=42.5   Lon=209.8
IRIDIUM 30 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-28
199724949U86º32817089Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-5
199841570U52º29128390Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-8
201742696U20º15643105282Forecast
MINOTAUR DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-9
201742924U25º49438293Forecast
TANCREDO-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-19
199841931U52º31431191Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-24
199842697U52º34834291Forecast
PSLV DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-25
201742929U19º6332170157Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-26
199842434U52º33132791Forecast
FIREFLY
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-5
201339404U40º30729691Forecast
PSLV DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-10
201742930U19º6103168154Forecast
CZ-4B DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-14
200833411U97º34233991Forecast
OSNSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-7
199841939U52º35635292Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-13
199841482U52º33633291Forecast
MINOTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-15
200629053U72º32431591Forecast
GRACE-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-21
200227392U89º32031791Forecast
IRIDIUM 43 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-21
199725039U86º57924993Forecast
COLUMBIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-24
199842702U52º38337592Forecast
ISS DEB (ROSA)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-29
199842813U52º38938592Forecast
ATLANTIS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-2
199842737U52º38737892Forecast
STARS-C
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-7
199841895U52º36736192Forecast
LEMUR-2-TRUTNA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-10
199842067U52º37336592Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-11
199841575U52º34233891Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-13
199841578U52º34433791Forecast
GRACE-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-19
200227391U89º32031691Forecast
AGGIESAT 4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-21
199841313U52º33332891Forecast
SGSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-25
199842703U52º38538392Forecast
EAGLE 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-27
201339436U98º44443293Forecast
FLOCK 2E-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-1
199841571U52º34434091Forecast
TIANGONG 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-2
201137820U43º32730391Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-3
199841576U52º34634191Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-5
201238249U97º34232991Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-7
199841479U52º34834791Forecast
FLOCK 2E-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-14
199841574U52º34834291Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-15
199841569U52º34834491Forecast
FLOCK 2E-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-16
199841565U52º34934491Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-21
199841481U52º34634591Forecast
FLOCK 2E-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-23
199841484U52º34934591Forecast
FLOCK 2E-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-24
199841573U52º34734291Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-2
199841480U52º35034792Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-7
199841577U52º35034591Forecast
CHALLENGER
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-13
199842721U52º39338492Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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