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The space junk SJ-10 DEB is forecast to reentry Sunday, 01 May 2016 at 18:11 UTC +/- 8 hours
SJ-10 DEB

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Sat 30-Apr-2016 7:11 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk SJ-10 DEB (41462U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Sunday, 01 May 2016 at 18:11 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-04-3
201641437U52º13612687Reentered!
Lat=-42   Lon=110
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-04-8
201540939U54º6058591Reentered!
Lat=-7.7   Lon=121.8
CZ-2D R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-04-19
201641449U43º15015087Reentered!
Lat=-41   Lon=115
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-04-30
201641467U97º17315988Reentered!
Lat=-25   Lon=8
SJ-10 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-05-1
201641462U43º51119892Forecast
SL-3 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-05-15
198011849U98º25324489Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-05-19
201541104U27º9262116193Forecast
FLOCK 1E-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-05-21
199840723U52º28627990Forecast
FLOCK 2B-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-06-1
199840957U52º30829791Forecast
FLOCK 1E-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-06-7
199840725U52º29729090Forecast
FLOCK 1E-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-06-26
199840727U52º31330491Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-06-29
201541035U18º13207126247Forecast
FLOCK 1E-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-3
199840724U52º31330591Forecast
FLOCK 1E-5
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-4
199840728U52º32431491Forecast
CZ-2C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-7
201239000U97º30029490Forecast
FLOCK 1E-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-10
199840729U52º32031291Forecast
FLOCK 1E-14
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-22
199840741U52º32531991Forecast
FLOCK 1E-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-25
199840726U52º32732091Forecast
FLOCK 1E-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-27
199840739U52º32832191Forecast
FLOCK 1E-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-07-31
199840737U52º32832391Forecast
FLOCK 1E-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-08-12
199840738U52º32331891Forecast
FLOCK 2B-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-08-26
199840953U52º35034992Forecast
FLOCK 2B-5
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-08-27
199840954U52º34734291Forecast
FLOCK 2B-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-08-28
199840956U52º34334191Forecast
FLOCK 1E-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-08-29
199840740U52º32832291Forecast
SJ-10 MODULE
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-08-29
201641455U43º30425190Forecast
ARIANE 44L R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-08-30
199020874U10664137212Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-8
200327706U39º1666185104Forecast
FLOCK 2B-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-11
199840955U52º33833491Forecast
FLOCK 2B-14
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-11
199840980U52º34133991Forecast
GOMX 3
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-15
199840949U52º34934591Forecast
FLOCK 2B-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-23
199840952U52º34834891Forecast
FLOCK 2B-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-09-25
199840979U52º35234892Forecast
AVUM R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-1
201238086U69º54023892Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-3
201641387U97º41727791Forecast
FLOCK 2B-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-4
199840951U52º34534491Forecast
FLOCK 2B-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-8
199840962U52º35034692Forecast
FLOCK 2B-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-11
199840950U52º34634491Forecast
SL-6 R/B(2)
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-13
199724963U62º7793114174Forecast
FLOCK 2B-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-10-21
199840963U52º35134792Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-11-5
201540881U20º18068131319Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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