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The space junk CZ-4B R/B is forecast to reentry Monday, 07 Sep 2015 at 13:48 UTC +/- 8 hours
CZ-4B R/B

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Mon 31-Aug-2015 7:10 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk CZ-4B R/B (40702U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Monday, 07 Sep 2015 at 13:48 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
H-2A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-08-8
201137955U97º13611787Reentered!
Lat=-14   Lon=190
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-08-17
201540700U98º16911487Reentered!
Lat=-19   Lon=156
FLOCK 1B-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-08-23
199840429U52º16815488Reentered!
Lat=51.2   Lon=334.4
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-09-7
201540702U97º28719489Forecast
FLOCK 1B-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-09-9
199840459U52º28226990Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-09-26
200934662U40º109616597Forecast
FLOCK 1D-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-10-17
199840451U52º31430591Forecast
FLOCK 1B-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-10-23
199840460U52º32932591Forecast
FLOCK 1B-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-10-27
199840454U52º32932791Forecast
FLOCK 1B-22
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-10-28
199840428U52º32031491Forecast
FLOCK 1B-27
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-10-31
199840422U52º32231391Forecast
FLOCK 1B-21
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-11-16
199840427U52º32231791Forecast
GEARRS-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-12-9
199840456U52º33532991Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-12-11
201037151U25º4745139137Forecast
ARKYD-3R
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-12-15
199840742U52º39038392Forecast
PROMETHEUS 1-5
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-12-18
201339393U41º37735992Forecast
PROMETHEUS 1-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2015-12-25
201339391U40º38336592Forecast
VERMONT LUNAR
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-01-2
201339407U41º37335592Forecast
FLOCK 1D-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-01-11
199840452U52º35735192Forecast
PROMETHEUS 1-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-01-26
201339408U40º38136392Forecast
PROMETHEUS 1-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-02-4
201339394U41º38136492Forecast
FLOCK 1E-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-02-5
199840738U52º39138792Forecast
PROMETHEUS 1-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-02-9
201339390U40º38336592Forecast
MINOTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-02-25
201339409U41º39037392Forecast
CENTENNIAL 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-03-3
199840743U52º39138892Forecast
ORSES
Reentry: (YMD) 2016-03-9
201339386U40º39437792Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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