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The space junk ANTARES R/B is forecast to reentry Sunday, 23 Feb 2020 at 01:14 UTC +/- 8 hours
ANTARES R/B

Forecast for ANTARES R/B Reentry


Update Sat 22-Feb-2020 20:30 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk ANTARES R/B (45177U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Sunday, 23 Feb 2020 at 01:14 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
STARLINK-46
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-20
201944246U5318314888Reentered!
Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-22
202045112U7017713388Reentered!
Lat=-14.8   Lon=310.4
ANTARES R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-23
202045177U5216915388Forecast
1998-067RD
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-24
199845260U5242341093Forecast
STARLINK-41
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-26
201944277U5342541793Forecast
STARLINK-22
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-26
201944236U5342541793Forecast
STARLINK-75
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-26
201944286U5342941993Forecast
STARLINK-1031
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-29
201944736U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1051
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-29
201944756U5340240193Forecast
STARLINK-42
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-29
201944256U5340139993Forecast
STARLINK-1026
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-1
201944731U5340540493Forecast
STARLINK-1009
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-1
201944715U5340640593Forecast
STARLINK-1012
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-1
201944718U5340440393Forecast
STARLINK-1015
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-2
201944721U5340640593Forecast
STARLINK-1017
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-3
201944723U5340039893Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-3
202045242U5334918990Forecast
STARLINK-1014
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-3
201944720U5343342593Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-3
202044977U5323422989Forecast
STARLINK-1025
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-4
201944730U5339939893Forecast
STARLINK-1070
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-4
202044956U5335234992Forecast
STARLINK-1048
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-4
201944753U5340139993Forecast
STARLINK-1008
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-4
201944714U5340139593Forecast
STARLINK-1023
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-5
201944728U5338238092Forecast
BATSU-CS1 (IRAZU)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-5
199843468U5226325390Forecast
STARLINK-52
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-5
201944259U5342442293Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-6
202044976U5324223489Forecast
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-6
201944837U9738417090Forecast
STARLINK-1049
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-7
201944754U5340140093Forecast
STARLINK-1028
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-7
201944733U5340340293Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-9
202044974U5324924089Forecast
STARLINK-29
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-9
201944243U5342641593Forecast
STARLINK-1010
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-10
201944716U5339339192Forecast
STARLINK-1176
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-10
202045090U5332432291Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-11
198920362U3626025490Forecast
1998-067RC
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-12
199845259U5242940193Forecast
STARLINK-67
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-12
201944278U5331028590Forecast
STARLINK-1016
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-15
201944722U5339739692Forecast
CZ-2D R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-15
201641902U9829522690Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-15
201944372U4530224490Forecast
STARLINK-1119
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-16
202044928U5355255096Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-24
202045107U5327225490Forecast
STARLINK-1113
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-28
202044926U5355255096Forecast
STARLINK-1179
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-29
202045085U5332432291Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-29
202045104U5327926090Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-29
202045106U5327425890Forecast
STARLINK-1121
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-30
202044929U5355054996Forecast
STARLINK-1073
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-31
202044914U5355154996Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-1
202045105U5328026090Forecast
STARLINK-1021
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-2
201944726U5340340293Forecast
STARLINK-1019
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-3
201944724U5340440293Forecast
STARLINK-1013
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-3
201944719U5340540493Forecast
STARLINK-1099
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-4
202044918U5355154896Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-4
202044975U5324924089Forecast
DIWATA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-5
199841463U5226926490Forecast
RADIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-6
199843550U5230930191Forecast
STARLINK-43
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-6
201944257U5347647494Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-6
201944707U9835921690Forecast
STARLINK-1170
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
202045073U5330729491Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-14
201742800U9832824190Forecast
TECHEDSAT 8
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-20
199844032U5233332791Forecast
ASTERIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-23
199843020U5230730391Forecast
STARLINK-1083
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-29
202044939U5335134992Forecast
NSIGHT
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-1
199842726U5230629991Forecast
STARLINK-1136
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-12
202045089U5334434391Forecast
STARLINK-1177
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-12
202045078U5334534391Forecast
STARLINK-1173
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-13
202045084U5334534491Forecast
STARLINK-1196
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-13
202045103U5335134892Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-19
201843658U6754121992Forecast
2020-014A
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-19
202045249U3548247494Forecast
STARLINK-1104
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-19
202044922U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1160
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-21
202045082U5335134992Forecast
DEBRISSAT-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-22
199843680U5233633191Forecast
STARLINK-1168
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-27
202045072U5335134992Forecast
CZ-4C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-31
201944210U9739526091Forecast
SL-12 R/B(AUX MOTOR)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-31
201238105U474675139137Forecast
STARLINK-1181
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-1
202045086U5335134992Forecast
1KUNS-PF
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-2
199843466U5233032691Forecast
STARLINK-1122
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-3
202044949U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1040
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-14
201944745U5333532991Forecast
STARLINK-1102
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-20
202044920U5355154996Forecast
IRIDIUM 96 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-20
200227376U8641926291Forecast
STARLINK-1101
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-2
202044919U5355154996Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-6
201944799U9833927991Forecast
STARLINK-1118
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-14
202044948U5330630491Forecast
STARLINK-1108
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-15
202044944U5335134892Forecast
STARLINK-1164
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-16
202045070U5335034992Forecast
STARLINK-48
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-19
201944289U5350850695Forecast
STARLINK-1082
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-21
202044938U5335134892Forecast
1998-067PK
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-23
199843598U5235034591Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-24
201339482U247791140174Forecast
STARLINK-1161
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-26
202045068U5335134892Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-27
201944710U2831225123543Forecast
STARLINK-1110
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-31
202044946U5335134892Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-2
201843230U2710972135216Forecast
TANUSHA-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-2
199843597U5235234792Forecast
STARLINK-66
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-5
201944255U5340640493Forecast
STARLINK-1174
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-9
202045075U5335134892Forecast
ARIANE 44L+ R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-12
199221941U42813174116Forecast
ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-17
201944825U9739833492Forecast
STARLINK-1180
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-23
202045076U5335234792Forecast
STARLINK-1137
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-26
202045092U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1112
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-26
202044925U5355154896Forecast
1998-067PC
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-27
199843554U5235334692Forecast
STARLINK-1139
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-4
202045065U5335134892Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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